Looking over the list of what will actually get shut down, I don't think so.
You see, it's only the "non-essential" stuff that's getting shut down. And at this point, the people have zero interest in paying for anything "non-essential". For 5 years now, in their own budgets they've had to cut "non-essentials", so why shouldn't the government?
It's like the sequester -- everyone said "this will be so horrible" -- but I haven't heard one story of actual pain it caused, except to a gov't employee.
Is there a point where "essential" personel also stop working? If the Tea Party makes *that* happen they'll get into trouble, but I doubt they will. I think this is exactly what they want -- to point out that much of the gov't is "non-essential".
Also, on the debt ceiling, ... that will be interesting. Yes, it's a terrible plan to default on your debt because then the cost of credit tends to go up (and any rise in interest rates when you're $17T in debt would be murderous), but I can't help wondering if lenders really have anywhere better to put their money. As long as T-Bills are still the best option, even if they're not as good as they used to be, folks will use them. Still, it could be very, very, very, very bad.